Episode Transcript
[00:00:00] Speaker A: Active shooter incidents. That phrase alone, it, it makes you pause, doesn't it?
[00:00:04] Speaker B: It really does.
[00:00:05] Speaker A: And look, the statistical chance any one person gets caught in one is low, thankfully. But they are happening. And that feeling of helplessness it creates, it's real.
[00:00:16] Speaker B: Absolutely. But helplessness isn't the only option.
[00:00:18] Speaker A: That's exactly right. And that's where our core idea here on Red Dot mindset really clicks in. Train the mind, win the fight.
So this deep dive, it's all about turning that feeling around. It's about empowerment using knowledge, using preparation. We're digging into the sources you shared with us. Guides, research, practical advice to help you navigate these really tough situations.
[00:00:42] Speaker B: And today we're really focusing on first, understanding how this threat is changing what it looks like now.
[00:00:47] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:00:48] Speaker B: And then crucially, getting into actionable strategies for survival. A lot of what we'll discuss comes from the work Mickey Middow and Gray Matter Ops, especially their guide on Avoid, deny, defend.
[00:00:57] Speaker A: That's a key one, definitely.
[00:00:59] Speaker B: But we're also pulling in, you know, the latest FBI data, some analysis from groups like the Rockefeller Institute, insights from Cade Courtly's work too.
[00:01:08] Speaker A: So getting a well rounded picture.
[00:01:10] Speaker B: Exactly. Think of it as getting you the best available information distilled down so you're better prepared.
[00:01:16] Speaker A: Okay, sounds good. Let's dive in. Where do we start? Maybe with the data.
What's the picture today?
[00:01:21] Speaker B: Yeah, let's look at the threat itself because it has been evolving.
[00:01:24] Speaker A: So looking at that recent FBI report, the one covering up to 2024, it paints kind of a mixed picture, but with some worrying trends underneath.
[00:01:34] Speaker B: Right. While you know, any single year can fluctuate, 2024 saw fewer incidents than 2023, for instance.
[00:01:42] Speaker A: Okay.
[00:01:42] Speaker B: The bigger trend, the five year average from 2020 to 2024, that's sitting at about 44, maybe 45 incidents per year.
[00:01:49] Speaker A: And the trend over time, that's the concerning part.
[00:01:51] Speaker B: That's the kick. That same FBI data, it shows a huge jump, like 70% more incidents in the last five years compared to the five years before that.
[00:01:59] Speaker A: 70%. Wow.
[00:02:00] Speaker B: Yeah. And it's not just the FBI saying this. Other sources, like one cited in the FBI report, active shooter response, run, hide, fight, mentioned something like a 50 plus percent increase just since 2021. So the pattern is definitely upward. Yeah. Oh, and interestingly, Saturdays tend to see the most incidents according to that FBI data.
[00:02:20] Speaker A: Okay, so it's happening more often. Where are these incidents actually taking place?
[00:02:24] Speaker B: Good question. The reason FBI numbers show a real mix, open spaces were actually the most frequent category in 2024, about half the.
[00:02:32] Speaker A: Incidents open spaces like parks, streets.
[00:02:34] Speaker B: Yeah, Public areas by commerce, you know, stores, businesses and education settings. Both around 17% that year.
[00:02:41] Speaker A: And over the slightly longer term, like that five year FBI window over the.
[00:02:45] Speaker B: 2020, 2024 period, OpenSpace still leads just slightly about 41%, with Commerce very close behind at 39%. Okay, but then you look at other analogies, like the Rockefeller Institute, looking way back from the 60s onwards. Their data may be using slightly different definitions, like mass shootings, highlights workplaces and schools as the most frequent locations over that long haul.
[00:03:06] Speaker A: Workplaces and schools.
[00:03:07] Speaker B: Right, and these often fall into that category Cade Courtly calls soft targets.
[00:03:12] Speaker A: What exactly does he mean by soft targets?
[00:03:15] Speaker B: Basically, places where large numbers of people gather. Think malls, supermarkets, schools, house of worship. Where security isn't always overt or as hardened as, say, a government building. They're accessible.
[00:03:29] Speaker A: Got it. So places we go every day, really?
[00:03:32] Speaker B: Pretty much. Which just underlines why awareness in daily life is so important.
[00:03:35] Speaker A: Okay, let's shift slightly. What about the attackers themselves? Is there a profile?
[00:03:39] Speaker B: Well, the short answer is no. Not really a single predictable profile.
But gray matter ops based on their work points to some common mindsets you might see.
[00:03:49] Speaker A: Like what?
[00:03:49] Speaker B: Often deliberate, focused, sort of detached from the consequences. And tragically, suicide is a factor in many cases. Over half might end with the attacker taking their own life.
[00:03:59] Speaker A: That's grim. Does the FBI data offer any insight here?
[00:04:02] Speaker B: It does. Particularly regarding behaviors before an attack. They really emphasize that these acts of targeted violence usually involve planning.
[00:04:10] Speaker A: Planning means potential warning signs.
[00:04:12] Speaker B: Exactly. Observable warning signs. Now, they're careful about mental illness. It is present in about 25% of offenders, which is roughly the same as the general population.
[00:04:23] Speaker A: So it's not a direct cause.
[00:04:24] Speaker B: Right. The FBI's research hasn't found a causative link. They see it more as potentially a risk factor associated with vulnerabilities or maybe impaired judgment, but not the sole driver. The focus is really on behavior.
[00:04:38] Speaker A: What kind of behaviors are we talking about?
[00:04:40] Speaker B: The FBI lists several concerning ones. Things like making comments or even threats about violent plans. Repeatedly fantasizing about violence, seeing violence as a sort of solution, having unusual difficulty, coping with life stressors, becoming more isolated, angry outbursts.
[00:04:56] Speaker A: That seems like a lot of potential signs.
[00:04:58] Speaker B: It is also things like an obsessive interest in previous attackers, or importantly, asking questions about security, maybe even testing security measures at a location. Or just a noticeable change in behavior, like a hardened viewpoint linked to some violent cause.
[00:05:12] Speaker A: And the point the FBI makes is.
[00:05:14] Speaker B: The Crucial point is that recognizing these behaviors and reporting them gives people a chance to intervene, to disrupt the plan before it happens.
[00:05:23] Speaker A: Right. Moving from just reacting to potential prevention.
[00:05:27] Speaker B: Exactly. Which leads us right into personal preparedness. And the absolute foundation for that has to be situational awareness.
[00:05:34] Speaker A: Yeah, this comes up again and again. It's not just about being paranoid.
[00:05:37] Speaker B: Not at all. Mickey Matta and Gray Matter Ops really stress this. Preparedness starts before anything happens. It's about being proactively aware. Cade Courtley calls it a state of mind.
[00:05:49] Speaker A: He has that checklist, right? The situational awareness checklist.
[00:05:52] Speaker B: Yeah, it's super simple and practical. When you walk into a place, any public space, find your exits. Where are they? Locate, cover. What could stop a bullet? Observe suspicious individuals. Does anyone or anything seem out of place? And trust your gut. If something feels wrong, pay attention.
[00:06:08] Speaker A: Just making that a quick mental habit.
[00:06:10] Speaker B: Exactly. Takes seconds, but gives you a baseline.
[00:06:12] Speaker A: You mentioned locate, cover. That distinction between cover and concealment seems really important here.
[00:06:18] Speaker B: Hugely important. People mix them up all the time under stress.
[00:06:22] Speaker A: So cover stops bullets.
[00:06:23] Speaker B: Right. Think thick concrete, maybe a large brick pillar. Engine block of a car, Something substantial. Concealment just hides you.
[00:06:31] Speaker A: Like a drywall partition or hiding behind clothes racks in a store.
[00:06:36] Speaker B: Exactly. It breaks line of sight, which is good, but it won't stop projectiles.
When you do that quick scan, you're specifically looking for things that offer genuine cover.
[00:06:46] Speaker A: Okay, so knowing your exits, knowing potential cover, that's the groundwork.
[00:06:51] Speaker B: It's the foundation. It means if something terrible does happen, you're not starting from absolute zero trying to figure things out. You've already got options in your head.
[00:06:59] Speaker A: Which brings us to what to actually do if the worst happens. That Avoid Deny Defend framework.
[00:07:05] Speaker B: Yes, this comes straight from Mickey Midow and Gray Matter Ops and is widely taught. Now, avoid, Deny, Defend. It's clear. It's action oriented. It's not about just hiding and hoping.
[00:07:15] Speaker A: Let's break it down. Avoid. That's first priority, always.
[00:07:19] Speaker B: If you can get out, get out. Remove yourself from the immediate danger, the kill zone, or the X, as some call it.
[00:07:25] Speaker A: How do you do that?
[00:07:26] Speaker B: Safely move away from the sounds of the threat. Gunfire, explosions. If you see muzzle flashes, go the other way. Stay low if you need to, and use that cover you hopefully already identified. Move from one piece of COVID to the next, towards an exit, if possible. Get distance.
[00:07:41] Speaker A: Okay, but what if you can't get out?
[00:07:43] Speaker B: If you're trapped, then you move to ddny. Deny the attacker access to you.
[00:07:47] Speaker A: So barricading.
[00:07:48] Speaker B: Exactly. Lock doors, pile furniture against them. Anything heavy, turn off the lights. Silence your phone. Completely silent, no vibrate. Find a secure hiding place that's out of the line of sight, ideally behind cover. Within that room. Make yourself a hard target.
[00:08:03] Speaker A: You're essentially creating a barrier, buying time.
[00:08:05] Speaker B: Buying time. Making it harder for them to get to you, maybe even encouraging them to move on to an easier target.
[00:08:11] Speaker A: And the last resort? Defend.
[00:08:14] Speaker B: Yes. If avoiding isn't possible and denying access fails, if you are confronted directly by the threat, then you defend.
[00:08:22] Speaker A: And the guidance here is pretty direct, isn't it?
[00:08:24] Speaker B: It's very direct. The avoid, deny, defend materials are explicit. This is about aggressive, committed action. Your goal is to incapacitate the attacker to stop the threat. You have the right to protect yourself. And the mindset shift is crucial. Do not fight fairly. This is about survival.
[00:08:43] Speaker A: Use whatever you can as a weapon. Improvise.
[00:08:46] Speaker B: Absolutely. Chairs, fire extinguishers, tools, belts, anything. And act with others, if possible. Overwhelm the attacker with aggression. It's a last resort, but it's your life on the line.
[00:08:56] Speaker A: It's empowering to know that civilian actions do make a difference sometimes.
[00:08:59] Speaker B: They absolutely do. That FBI data from 2022, it showed that in over 11% of incidents, it was civilians, other unarmed civilians, often who intervened and stopped the shooter.
[00:09:09] Speaker A: Wow, 11%. That's significant.
[00:09:11] Speaker B: It really is. It reinforces that message from alert the training center in Texas. Their motto is, what you do matters, your actions count.
[00:09:17] Speaker A: But acting effectively under that kind of extreme stress, that requires training the mind. Right back to our core theme.
[00:09:23] Speaker B: 100%.
This is where the red dot mindset philosophy really applies. Mickey Mita and Gray Matter Ops talk a lot about the psychology of survival.
[00:09:32] Speaker A: The lizard brain taking over.
[00:09:34] Speaker B: Yeah, that primal emotional part of our brain. Under extreme stress, it can just hijack everything. Fight, flight, or freeze. That's its limited menu.
[00:09:43] Speaker A: And it affects how we process things. Like that denial, deliberation, decisive moment idea.
[00:09:49] Speaker B: Exactly. Amanda Ripley wrote about this. People initially might deny what's happening. Then they deliberate trying to figure it out. But the human brain, the rational part, is struggling under stress.
The lizard brain is screaming danger signals.
[00:10:03] Speaker A: Making it hard to think clearly.
[00:10:04] Speaker B: Very hard. You can get tunnel vision, auditory exclusion where you don't hear things properly. Your fine motor skills might go out the window. That deliberation phase can take too long, and you miss the chance to act decisively.
[00:10:16] Speaker A: So how do you counter that? How do you train your mind?
[00:10:18] Speaker B: The key is programming your human brain before the stress hits. Give your instincts a better script to follow. Well, several Strategies come up in the Avoid Deny defender materials.
Willpower can help initially pushing past panic, but it's a limited resource.
Interestingly, physical fitness actually helps regulate your body's stress response.
[00:10:39] Speaker A: Physical fitness helps mentally.
[00:10:41] Speaker B: It can, yeah. And simply taking action, any action, helps reduce that feeling of helplessness, which itself reduces stress. Don't just freeze, do something.
[00:10:51] Speaker A: Are there specific techniques, like that breathing thing?
[00:10:54] Speaker B: Yes, combat breathing. It's mentioned in the materials. Simple pattern.
Breathe in through your nose for a count of three, hold for two, breathe out through your mouth for three, pause.
[00:11:03] Speaker A: For two, repeat a two T2.
[00:11:06] Speaker B: Right. It forces slower, deeper breath, helps lower the heart rate and can kind of short circuit that panic response, temporarily letting your rational brain get back online.
[00:11:15] Speaker A: What else?
[00:11:16] Speaker B: Mental tools, Mental scripts or pre planning. Basically thinking through what if scenarios beforehand. If I hear gunfire in a mall, what's my first move? Where are the exits? What's potential cover? Just running those scenarios mentally creates pathways in your brain.
[00:11:29] Speaker A: Like rehearsing.
[00:11:30] Speaker B: Exactly.
Another tool is the ODA Loop. Observe, orient, decide, act.
It's a framework for making decisions quickly under pressure. Observe what's happening, orient yourself to the situation, decide on a course of action, and then act, then repeat.
[00:11:47] Speaker A: The loop speeds up decision making.
[00:11:49] Speaker B: It does.
[00:11:49] Speaker A: There.
[00:11:50] Speaker B: And one more psychological tactic. If you feel overwhelming fear or panic, try to consciously shift the emotion.
[00:11:57] Speaker A: Shift it how?
[00:11:58] Speaker B: The guidance suggests shifting from fear to anger. Focus that energy outward at the threat, at the injustice of it. Don't get scared, get mad. Anger can be a more mobilizing emotion than paralyzing fear.
[00:12:10] Speaker A: Interesting. So it really boils down to preparing your mind when you're calm.
[00:12:14] Speaker B: That's the essence of it. Train your mind now so you have better responses available when things are chaotic.
[00:12:19] Speaker A: Okay, so you've avoided, denied, or maybe even defended. What happens when law enforcement shows up? That seems like another critical, potentially confusing moment.
[00:12:28] Speaker B: It absolutely is. And the training materials, like the Active Shooter Survival Guide, are very clear on this. Law enforcement's number one job when they arrive is to stop the killing.
[00:12:37] Speaker A: Meaning they go straight for the shooter.
[00:12:39] Speaker B: Straight for the sound of the gunfire. They are trained to move past injured people, past civilians, hiding, to neutralize the threat first. That's their priority.
Medical help comes later.
[00:12:50] Speaker A: So what should you do when you see officers arriving?
[00:12:53] Speaker B: Expect chaos.
Understand they don't know who you are. They're assessing everyone as a potential unknown threat initially.
So you must follow their commands instantly. No hesitation. And the hands, absolutely critical. Keep your hands empty and clearly visible at all times. No phones, no pointing, nothing in your Hands. Raise them slowly if instructed. Let them see you are not a threat.
[00:13:16] Speaker A: What if someone is legally carrying a weapon? Maybe they even used it to defend themselves.
[00:13:20] Speaker B: The advice is unequivocal.
[00:13:22] Speaker A: Yeah.
[00:13:22] Speaker B: Put the weapon down immediately. Keep your hands visible. Do not approach the officers with it. Identify yourself clearly.
[00:13:28] Speaker A: Is there specific phrasing they recommend?
[00:13:30] Speaker B: Yes. Sources like active shooter response, Run, hide, fight. Suggest yelling clearly, repeatedly. Unarmed civilian friendlies. Make it obvious you're not the threat.
[00:13:40] Speaker A: Okay. That's vital information. And what about afterwards?
[00:13:44] Speaker B: Medical needs also crucial emergency medical services. The paramedics often cannot enter the scene until law enforcement declares it safe or secure.
[00:13:54] Speaker A: So there could be a delay in professional medical help.
[00:13:57] Speaker B: Yes. Which means the initial medical aid, especially for severe bleeding, might have to come from people already inside the survivors.
[00:14:06] Speaker A: That's where things like stop the bleed come in.
[00:14:08] Speaker B: Exactly. Learning basic bleeding control techniques, applying pressure, packing wounds using tourniquets correctly, if you have them and know how, is incredibly important. It's highlighted in multiple sources. Having a small trauma kit accessible could literally save a life. Yours or someone else's.
[00:14:25] Speaker A: Wow. Okay. We've covered a huge amount here.
[00:14:27] Speaker B: We really have. From understanding the threat, the trends, the locations, to the absolute necessity of situational.
[00:14:34] Speaker A: Awareness to that core strategy. Avoid, deny, defend. Based on Mickey Mitto and gray matter Ops work.
[00:14:40] Speaker B: Digging into the mental side, training your mind to overcome stress, using techniques like combat breathing and pre planning.
[00:14:46] Speaker A: Plus knowing how to interact with law enforcement when they arrive, and the importance of basic medical readiness like stop the bleed.
[00:14:54] Speaker B: It's a lot. But the core message that comes through from all these different sources, from alert to gray matter ops, is consistent, which is what you do matters. It's about empowerment. It's not about fear. It's about building resilience through preparation.
[00:15:10] Speaker A: Knowing the threat, having a plan, training your mind.
It gives you options.
[00:15:15] Speaker B: Exactly. It increases your chances. Knowledge isn't just abstract power. When you understand it and can apply it, it becomes a survival tool.
[00:15:22] Speaker A: This deep dive is really just a starting point, though. Where can people go to learn more?
[00:15:26] Speaker B: Definitely. Check out the Gray Matter Ops website for more on their approach and for formal certified training. That elite center at Texas State University is fantastic. They offer civilian response to active shooter events, crash training online.
[00:15:38] Speaker A: Is there a link for that?
[00:15:39] Speaker B: Yep, it's elearning.alert.org that's elearning.a L E R R T.org they have courses you can take right now.
[00:15:48] Speaker A: Excellent resources.
Taking these steps, even small ones, makes a difference. It's not just for you, but maybe helps you help others, too.
So maybe think about what's one small step you can take today after hearing this us.
[00:16:01] Speaker B: That's a great closing thought.
[00:16:02] Speaker A: Thank you for joining us for this deep dive. We really hope this has been valuable, insightful, and ultimately empowering for you.
[00:16:09] Speaker B: We do, too. Stay safe, stay prepared, and always remember.
[00:16:13] Speaker A: That core philosophy guiding us here on Red Dot mindset. Train the mind, win the fight.
[00:16:18] Speaker B: Train your mind, win the fight.
